Capital & Investment

GCC Clean Energy in 2027: From Ambition to Bankable Projects

Where the real opportunities in GCC clean energy lie in 2027

The next phase of the Gulf's clean-energy development will be judged project by project. Customers, infrastructure, credible evidence and workable financing will decide which strategies become bankable projects.

Ryan Babbage

Founder & CEO, OceanMerge® and OceanBlocks®

1 November 2026
Updated 2 November 2026
9 min read

The next phase of the Gulf’s clean-energy development will be judged project by project. Ambition matters, but commercial progress also depends on customers, infrastructure, credible performance evidence and a workable financing structure. For technology developers and prospective partners, the practical question is where those elements can be brought together.

Working across the GCC and with Australia, and through OceanBlocks, my energy technology company in Abu Dhabi, I spend much of my time on one question: where will value actually be created as these strategies move into execution? What follows is a market-level view of where I believe the real opportunities lie as we move into 2027.

Four Countries, Four Strategies

The first mistake is to speak of "the GCC" as one opportunity. Each country is following its own strategy, on its own timetable.

The UAE has committed to net zero by 2050. Its National Hydrogen Strategy targets 1.4 million tonnes a year of low-carbon hydrogen production by 2031, comprising 1 million tonnes of green and 0.4 million tonnes of blue hydrogen, rising to 7.5 million tonnes by 2040 and 15 million tonnes by 2050. It forecasts domestic demand of 2.7 million tonnes a year by 2031 and envisages the establishment of hydrogen "oases" (UAE Government n.d.). A senior official at the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure has said the country aims to reach 14.2 GW of renewable capacity by 2030 (WAM 2025a).

Saudi Arabia has set a net zero target for 2060 under the Saudi Green Initiative (SGI 2021) and has committed to generating 50 per cent of its power from renewable sources by 2030 (SGI n.d.). In an economy of that size, even incremental policy shifts create very large markets.

Oman has a national strategy for an orderly transition to net zero by 2050 (Sultanate of Oman 2022) and has been one of the most structured movers on hydrogen. In 2022 it created Hydrogen Oman (Hydrom) to lead and manage its hydrogen strategy, including the allocation of land for projects through auctions (IEA 2023; Hydrom 2024). The International Energy Agency notes that Oman aims to produce at least 1 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen a year by 2030, up to 3.75 million tonnes by 2040 and up to 8.5 million tonnes by 2050 (IEA 2023). Hydrom's own 2024 strategy reports eight project agreements representing 1.38 million tonnes a year of hydrogen production and 34.8 GW of associated renewable capacity (Hydrom 2024).

Qatar approaches the transition as one of the world's leading LNG suppliers. Its National Climate Change Action Plan targets a 25 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 against a business-as-usual baseline (MME 2021). QatarEnergy's QAFCO-7 project at Mesaieed is designed to produce 1.2 million tonnes a year of blue ammonia, with an integrated carbon capture and storage capacity of 1.5 million tonnes a year (QAFCO 2022; QatarEnergy 2024). Industries Qatar reported in February 2026 that the project was in its final phase of construction and expected to be operational during the second quarter of 2026 (Industries Qatar 2026), with its carbon capture and storage facility to follow on completion (Quantum Commodity Intelligence 2026).

Same region. Different resources, institutions, timelines and appetites. The IEA observes that where natural gas is cheap, as in the Middle East, the cost gap for renewable hydrogen remains larger and carbon capture is likely to be more competitive in the near term (IEA 2025a). That helps explain why blue and green pathways sit side by side in Gulf strategies.

Strategy should begin with the country, not the map.

The Market Is Real, and Still Early

It is worth being precise about the global market these strategies serve.

Global hydrogen demand surpassed 100 million tonnes in 2025. Low-emissions hydrogen production grew by 20 per cent that year to almost 1 million tonnes, and is expected to exceed 1 per cent of global production for the first time in 2026 (IEA 2026). The pipeline of announced low-emissions projects to 2030 has shrunk to 27 million tonnes a year, mostly because of delays and cancellations, and the volume from projects that are committed or have strong potential to operate by 2030 has fallen from 10 million tonnes to just above 6 million (IEA 2026).

Both facts are true at once. The market is real, and it is growing quickly from a small base. It is also, for now, smaller than headline announcements suggest.

For investors, that gap is the opportunity. The value in 2027 will sit with projects that cross from announcement to investment decision, and with the businesses that help them do so.

The Molecule Needs a Buyer

A production target is not demand. A signed memorandum is not an offtake contract.

The IEA reports that new offtake agreements were broadly unchanged in 2025, at around 1.7 million tonnes, and that only around 20 per cent of newly signed volumes were backed by firm contractual commitments, concentrated in refining, industry and power generation (IEA 2026). Offtake is the scarcest input in the industry.

The Gulf's most advanced project shows why. NEOM Green Hydrogen Company, an equal joint venture of ACWA Power, Air Products and NEOM, reached financial close in May 2023 at a total investment value of US$8.4 billion, including US$6.1 billion of non-recourse financing from 23 banks and financial institutions. Alongside the financing, the company announced an exclusive 30-year agreement for Air Products to take all of the plant's green ammonia (NGHC 2023). The plant is designed to produce up to 600 tonnes of hydrogen a day using up to 4 GW of solar and wind (NGHC 2023). In August 2026, MEED reported that construction was complete and commissioning had begun, with commercial operations targeted for 2027 (MEED 2026).

The lesson is not about scale. It is about sequence. The buyer was secured when the capital was committed.

New forms of demand are emerging to fill the gap. Germany's H2Global mechanism awarded its first pilot auction for renewable ammonia to Fertiglobe, the Abu Dhabi-based fertiliser company that was then a partnership between ADNOC and OCI; OCI completed the sale of its entire 50% + 1 share stake to ADNOC on 15 October 2024 (OCI 2024). Deliveries to European ports are planned from 2027, rising to a cumulative 397,000 tonnes by 2033, with a maximum contract value of EUR 397 million. The ammonia is to be produced in Egypt (H2Global 2024). In Japan, the Hydrogen Society Promotion Act of 2024 offers 15-year contracts for difference for domestic and imported low-carbon hydrogen, provided projects continue operating for at least ten years after support ends (IEA 2025b).

Domestic demand deserves more attention than it receives. Gulf economies have substantial industrial bases in refining, fertilisers, aluminium, steel and chemicals. Decarbonising that industry can provide earlier and more predictable demand than export markets that depend on policy decisions made elsewhere.

Infrastructure Matters More Than the Headline Project

Large clean energy projects live or die on infrastructure that rarely appears in a press release: transmission, water, storage, pipelines, ports and land with clear tenure.

Ports matter most of all. The IEA notes that a large share of today's hydrogen production and demand sits in refineries and chemical plants near ports, and that nearly 80 ports worldwide already have well-developed expertise in handling chemical products. It recommends a focus on industrial and port clusters that co-locate production with pools of potential users (IEA 2025a).

The Gulf is well placed for this. Oman, the IEA observes, sits on important trade routes between Europe and Asia, has existing infrastructure that can be used or repurposed for low-emissions fuels, and has extensive experience in handling and exporting both LNG and ammonia (IEA 2023). The UAE's planned hydrogen oases (UAE Government n.d.) appear to follow the same cluster logic.

For investors and partners, infrastructure is also where the opportunity is less crowded. Not everyone needs to own a production project. Storage, logistics, engineering, monitoring, services and the businesses that surround large projects can offer more predictable returns and help shape the ecosystem itself.

Headline projects attract attention; the surrounding infrastructure determines whether they can operate.

A Certificate Is Becoming Part of the Product

As clean energy becomes a traded commodity, buyers need proof. Where did the energy come from? What were the emissions? Who verified them?

Increasingly, the certificate is not paperwork attached to the product. It is part of the product.

The European Union has set the most detailed rules. Under its delegated acts on renewable fuels of non-biological origin, renewable hydrogen must achieve at least 70 per cent greenhouse gas savings and meet criteria for additionality and for temporal and geographic correlation. The rules apply to international producers exporting to the EU as well as to domestic ones, and certification relies on recognised voluntary schemes (European Commission n.d.b). Until the end of 2029, renewable electricity and hydrogen production must be matched within the same calendar month; from 1 January 2030, within the same hour (European Commission 2023; European Union 2023). The EU's Renewable Energy Directive expects such fuels to account for at least 42 per cent of hydrogen used in industry by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 (European Commission n.d.b).

At the border, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its definitive regime on 1 January 2026 and covers hydrogen and fertilisers, among other goods (European Commission n.d.a). Japan's framework includes a certification threshold aligned with EU levels, at around 3.4 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilogram of hydrogen (IEA 2025b).

Australia launched its Guarantee of Origin scheme on 3 November 2025. Administered by the Clean Energy Regulator, it is a voluntary framework that tracks emissions intensity and initially certifies hydrogen produced by electrolysis, with plans to extend to other low-carbon products (CER 2025).

Gulf certification frameworks are taking shape. Oman's Net Zero Centre, established in December 2024, is to issue certifications for carbon, hydrogen and low-carbon products (Oman Ministry of Finance 2024). In January 2025, the UAE's Minister of Energy and Infrastructure said the ministry was drafting hydrogen legislation and standards in collaboration with the International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy (WAM 2025b).

This is where Australia and the Gulf can be genuinely complementary. Australia brings regulatory experience and certification design. The Gulf brings resources, capital and the capacity to build at scale.

Certification is, in the end, a formal expression of trust.

Capital Follows Contracts

Capital for clean energy in the GCC is not scarce. Sovereign-linked investors, national energy companies, family offices and international developers are all active.

What investors look for most is well-structured opportunity: projects with clear ownership, credible partners, a defined route to offtake, recognised certification and governance that can withstand diligence.

The IEA's recommendations point in the same direction. It urges governments to maintain support for shovel-ready projects that target existing hydrogen uses, to pool demand in industrial hubs, and to use export credit agencies and public finance institutions to guarantee first-of-a-kind projects (IEA 2025a).

Think of it as a staircase. Each contract, certificate and operating milestone retires a specific risk, and each retired risk opens access to a larger and cheaper pool of capital.

Where Partnerships Fit

For investors, a few principles follow. Choose countries deliberately rather than "the region". Favour projects with demand already in view. Look beyond production to the enabling layers. Treat certification and governance as core value, not compliance overhead.

For founders and technology owners, particularly those coming from Australia, the Gulf rewards preparation and patience. Free zones such as ADGM provide familiar legal foundations. Local partners provide access and context. Relationships, built over time, decide who is invited into the most important conversations.

The opportunities in 2027 will go to those who match the right asset to the right market, partner well and earn the trust that turns a strategy into an operating project.